Unterhaching U19 3–2 Bayern München U19

Unterhaching U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 2

Bayern München U19

B. Fröhlich 27'

D. Girtler 22'

A. Keller 15' (pen)

A. Ibrahimović 40'

L. Klanac 21'

8/21/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 2Alpenbauer Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Unterhaching U1928%

×Draw20%

Bayern München U1952%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unterhaching U19Expected goals in this matchBayern München U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

2.36

Unterhaching U19

1.69

Bayern München U19

2.36

Bayern München U19 creates 40% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 72 away

1.70

creates per match

2.63

2.09

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Unterhaching U19

1.70

Bayern München U19

2.63

allows per match

Unterhaching U19

2.09

Bayern München U19

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unterhaching U19+0.00on par

Bayern München U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unterhaching U19 ↓

Bayern München U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Unterhaching U19 or draw

48%

Unterhaching U19 or Bayern München U19

80%

Draw or Bayern München U19

72%

Winning margin

Unterhaching U19 wins by 2+

13%

Bayern München U19 wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Unterhaching U19 1+ goals

82%

Unterhaching U19 2+ goals

50%

Unterhaching U19 3+ goals

24%

Bayern München U19 1+ goals

90%

Bayern München U19 2+ goals

68%

Bayern München U19 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Unterhaching U19 (draw refunded)

35%

Bayern München U19 (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unterhaching U19 at home — creates 1.70, concedes 2.09 · 56 matches

Bayern München U19 away — creates 2.63, concedes 1.67 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unterhaching U19 attack 1.70 + Bayern München U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.69

Bayern München U19 attack 2.63 + Unterhaching U19 defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Unterhaching U19 scores more

28%

level

20%

Bayern München U19 scores more

52%

Bayern München U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bayern München U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

A. KellerPenalty

21'

22'

27'

40'

53'

L. Bucher← E. Haxhosaj

63'

B. Hepburn← L. Becker

65'

F. Lautenbacher← F. Markert

65'

L. Pförtner← N. Nollenberger

73'

D. Jonathans← E. Demircan

86'

B. Wimmer← M. Vinlöf

86'

L. Alemu← Y. Qashi

87'

B. Holzmeier← L. Gabelunke

87'

D. Ajeti← D. Girtler

Unterhaching

Bayern

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: M. Unterberger

53'▲L. Bucher←▼E. Haxhosaj

65'▲F. Lautenbacher←▼F. Markert

65'▲L. Pförtner←▼N. Nollenberger

87'▲B. Holzmeier←▼L. Gabelunke

87'▲D. Ajeti←▼D. Girtler

Unterhaching U19 substitutes

BucherLautenbacherPförtnerHolzmeierAjetiJamontsStaiger

Manager: M. Demichelis

63'▲B. Hepburn←▼L. Becker

73'▲D. Jonathans←▼E. Demircan

86'▲B. Wimmer←▼M. Vinlöf

86'▲L. Alemu←▼Y. Qashi

Bayern München U19 substitutes

HepburnJonathansWimmerAlemuEmciMarkertDeziel

Match Recap: Unterhaching U19 vs Bayern München U19

Unterhaching U19 beat Bayern München U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on August 21, 2022.

Goals: A. Keller (15' pen), L. Klanac (21'), D. Girtler (22'), B. Fröhlich (27'), A. Ibrahimović (40').

The match was played at Alpenbauer Sportpark in Unterhaching.

Unterhaching U19 vs Bayern München U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Unterhaching U19 vs Bayern München U19