Unterhaching U19 3–0 1860 München U19

Unterhaching U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

1860 München U19

C. Pfeiffer 90+2', 68'

L. Hesch 4'

12/2/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 13Sportpark Unterhaching Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Unterhaching U1939%

×Draw21%

1860 München U1939%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unterhaching U19Expected goals in this match1860 München U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

Unterhaching U19

1.90

1860 München U19

1.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 54 away

1.70

creates per match

1.70

2.09

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Unterhaching U19

1.70

1860 München U19

1.70

allows per match

Unterhaching U19

2.09

1860 München U19

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unterhaching U19+0.00on par

1860 München U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unterhaching U19 ↓

1860 München U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Unterhaching U19 or draw

61%

Unterhaching U19 or 1860 München U19

79%

Draw or 1860 München U19

61%

Winning margin

Unterhaching U19 wins by 2+

21%

1860 München U19 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Unterhaching U19 1+ goals

85%

Unterhaching U19 2+ goals

56%

Unterhaching U19 3+ goals

29%

1860 München U19 1+ goals

85%

1860 München U19 2+ goals

56%

1860 München U19 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Unterhaching U19 (draw refunded)

50%

1860 München U19 (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unterhaching U19 at home — creates 1.70, concedes 2.09 · 56 matches

1860 München U19 away — creates 1.70, concedes 2.09 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unterhaching U19 attack 1.70 + 1860 München U19 defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.90

1860 München U19 attack 1.70 + Unterhaching U19 defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Unterhaching U19 scores more

39%

level

21%

1860 München U19 scores more

39%

Unterhaching U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Unterhaching U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

L. Hesch

64'

J. Schurz← F. Wagner

68'

C. Pfeiffer

73'

L. Grancay← M. Roithmayr

74'

J. Adilji← L. Hesch

77'

M. Güzelarslan← E. Dursun

85'

L. Leger← S. Weiß

90+2'

C. Pfeiffer

Unterhaching

1860

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Hesch

▼

Weiß

⚽2

Pfeiffer

Manager: A. Haidl

74'▲J. Adilji←▼L. Hesch

85'▲L. Leger←▼S. Weiß

Unterhaching U19 substitutes

AdiljiLegerSchweinsteigerBracherMeinerFalckKaradža

Manager: J. Schittenhelm

64'▲J. Schurz←▼F. Wagner

73'▲L. Grancay←▼M. Roithmayr

77'▲M. Güzelarslan←▼E. Dursun

1860 München U19 substitutes

SchurzGrancayGüzelarslanAvdićFiedlerDunkerTekin

Match Recap: Unterhaching U19 vs 1860 München U19

Unterhaching U19 beat 1860 München U19 3-0 in U19 Bundesliga on December 2, 2024.

Goals: L. Hesch (4'), C. Pfeiffer (68', 90+2').

The match was played at Sportpark Unterhaching Kunstrasen in Unterhaching.

Unterhaching U19 vs 1860 München U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Unterhaching U19 vs 1860 München U19