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Unterhaching II vs Ismaning — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Unterhaching II
Unterhaching II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ismaning
Ismaning
9/20/2024Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 12Stadion am Sportpark Neuried

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Unterhaching II39%
×Draw25%
Ismaning36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unterhaching II
1.46
Ismaning
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 66 away

creates per match

Unterhaching II
1.00
Ismaning
1.15

allows per match

Unterhaching II
1.63
Ismaning
1.92

finishing

Unterhaching II+0.00on par
Ismaning+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unterhaching II ↓

Ismaning →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Unterhaching II or draw
64%
Unterhaching II or Ismaning
75%
Draw or Ismaning
61%

Winning margin

Unterhaching II wins by 2+
19%
Ismaning wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Unterhaching II 1+ goals
77%
Unterhaching II 2+ goals
43%
Unterhaching II 3+ goals
18%
Ismaning 1+ goals
75%
Ismaning 2+ goals
40%
Ismaning 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Unterhaching II (draw refunded)
52%
Ismaning (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unterhaching II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

Ismaning away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.92 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unterhaching II attack 1.00 + Ismaning defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.46

Ismaning attack 1.15 + Unterhaching II defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Unterhaching II scores more
39%
level
25%
Ismaning scores more
36%

Unterhaching II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Unterhaching II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unterhaching II vs Ismaning

Ismaning beat Unterhaching II 1-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on September 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion am Sportpark Neuried in Neuried.