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Unterhaching II vs Heimstetten — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Unterhaching II
Unterhaching II
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 3
Heimstetten
Heimstetten
4/4/2025Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 28Stadion am Sportpark Neuried

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Unterhaching II33%
×Draw24%
Heimstetten43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unterhaching II
1.38
Heimstetten
1.60

Heimstetten creates 16% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 49 away

creates per match

Unterhaching II
1.00
Heimstetten
1.57

allows per match

Unterhaching II
1.63
Heimstetten
1.76

finishing

Unterhaching II+0.00on par
Heimstetten+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unterhaching II ↓

Heimstetten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Unterhaching II or draw
57%
Unterhaching II or Heimstetten
76%
Draw or Heimstetten
67%

Winning margin

Unterhaching II wins by 2+
15%
Heimstetten wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Unterhaching II 1+ goals
75%
Unterhaching II 2+ goals
40%
Unterhaching II 3+ goals
16%
Heimstetten 1+ goals
80%
Heimstetten 2+ goals
47%
Heimstetten 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Unterhaching II (draw refunded)
44%
Heimstetten (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unterhaching II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

Heimstetten away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.76 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unterhaching II attack 1.00 + Heimstetten defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.38

Heimstetten attack 1.57 + Unterhaching II defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Unterhaching II scores more
33%
level
24%
Heimstetten scores more
43%

Heimstetten at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Heimstetten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Süd: Unterhaching II 0–6 Heimstetten

Heimstetten beat Unterhaching II 6-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on April 4, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion am Sportpark Neuried in Neuried.