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UNSW vs Mounties Wanderers — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

UNSW
UNSW
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mounties Wanderers
Mounties Wanderers
T. Quilligan 63'
E. Kishimoto 70'
6/14/2025New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 19The Village Green Field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

UNSW57%
×Draw21%
Mounties Wanderers22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UNSW
2.08
Mounties Wanderers
1.22

UNSW creates 70% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 50 away

creates per match

UNSW
2.07
Mounties Wanderers
1.24

allows per match

UNSW
1.20
Mounties Wanderers
2.08

finishing

UNSW+0.00on par
Mounties Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UNSW ↓

Mounties Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

UNSW or draw
78%
UNSW or Mounties Wanderers
79%
Draw or Mounties Wanderers
43%

Winning margin

UNSW wins by 2+
34%
Mounties Wanderers wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

UNSW 1+ goals
87%
UNSW 2+ goals
61%
UNSW 3+ goals
34%
Mounties Wanderers 1+ goals
70%
Mounties Wanderers 2+ goals
34%
Mounties Wanderers 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

UNSW (draw refunded)
72%
Mounties Wanderers (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UNSW at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

Mounties Wanderers away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.08 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UNSW attack 2.07 + Mounties Wanderers defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.08

Mounties Wanderers attack 1.24 + UNSW defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

UNSW scores more
57%
level
21%
Mounties Wanderers scores more
22%

UNSW at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "UNSW will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

63'
T. Quilligan
70'
E. Kishimoto

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UNSW 1 – 1 Mounties Wanderers

UNSW and Mounties Wanderers drew 1-1 in New South Wales NPL 2 on June 14, 2025.

Goals: T. Quilligan (63'), E. Kishimoto (70').

The match was played at The Village Green Field 1 in Kensington.