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UNSW vs Inter Lions — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

UNSW
UNSW
FT
2 – 1
Inter Lions
Inter Lions
2/24/2024New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 2The Village Green Field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

UNSW51%
×Draw22%
Inter Lions27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UNSW
1.94
Inter Lions
1.36

UNSW creates 43% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 57 away

creates per match

UNSW
2.07
Inter Lions
1.53

allows per match

UNSW
1.20
Inter Lions
1.82

finishing

UNSW+0.00on par
Inter Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UNSW ↓

Inter Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

UNSW or draw
73%
UNSW or Inter Lions
78%
Draw or Inter Lions
49%

Winning margin

UNSW wins by 2+
29%
Inter Lions wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

UNSW 1+ goals
86%
UNSW 2+ goals
58%
UNSW 3+ goals
30%
Inter Lions 1+ goals
74%
Inter Lions 2+ goals
39%
Inter Lions 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

UNSW (draw refunded)
65%
Inter Lions (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UNSW at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

Inter Lions away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.82 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UNSW attack 2.07 + Inter Lions defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.94

Inter Lions attack 1.53 + UNSW defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

UNSW scores more
51%
level
22%
Inter Lions scores more
27%

UNSW at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "UNSW will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UNSW vs Inter Lions

UNSW beat Inter Lions 2-1 in New South Wales NPL 2 on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at The Village Green Field 1 in Kensington.