UNSW 2–0 Dunbar Rovers: Result & Stats

UNSW

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dunbar Rovers

6/4/2024

New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 18The Village Green Field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

UNSW63%

×Draw20%

Dunbar Rovers17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UNSWExpected goals in this matchDunbar Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.22

1.06

UNSW

2.22

Dunbar Rovers

1.06

UNSW creates 109% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

2.07

creates per match

0.93

1.20

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

UNSW

2.07

Dunbar Rovers

0.93

allows per match

UNSW

1.20

Dunbar Rovers

2.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UNSW+0.00on par

Dunbar Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UNSW ↓

Dunbar Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

UNSW or draw

83%

UNSW or Dunbar Rovers

80%

Draw or Dunbar Rovers

37%

Winning margin

UNSW wins by 2+

40%

Dunbar Rovers wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

UNSW 1+ goals

89%

UNSW 2+ goals

65%

UNSW 3+ goals

38%

Dunbar Rovers 1+ goals

65%

Dunbar Rovers 2+ goals

29%

Dunbar Rovers 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

UNSW (draw refunded)

79%

Dunbar Rovers (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UNSW at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

Dunbar Rovers away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UNSW attack 2.07 + Dunbar Rovers defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.22

Dunbar Rovers attack 0.93 + UNSW defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

UNSW scores more

63%

level

20%

Dunbar Rovers scores more

17%

UNSW at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "UNSW will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff