UNSAAC W 2–2 Flamengo FBC W: Result & Stats

UNSAAC W

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Flamengo FBC W

6/1/2026

Liga Women · Apertura - 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

UNSAAC W63%

×Draw21%

Flamengo FBC W16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UNSAAC WExpected goals in this matchFlamengo FBC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.90

UNSAAC W

2.00

Flamengo FBC W

0.90

UNSAAC W creates 122% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

0.80

1.00

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

UNSAAC W

1.00

Flamengo FBC W

0.80

allows per match

UNSAAC W

1.00

Flamengo FBC W

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UNSAAC W+0.00on par

Flamengo FBC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UNSAAC W ↓

Flamengo FBC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

UNSAAC W or draw

84%

UNSAAC W or Flamengo FBC W

79%

Draw or Flamengo FBC W

37%

Winning margin

UNSAAC W wins by 2+

38%

Flamengo FBC W wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

UNSAAC W 1+ goals

86%

UNSAAC W 2+ goals

59%

UNSAAC W 3+ goals

32%

Flamengo FBC W 1+ goals

59%

Flamengo FBC W 2+ goals

23%

Flamengo FBC W 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

UNSAAC W (draw refunded)

79%

Flamengo FBC W (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UNSAAC W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Flamengo FBC W away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UNSAAC W attack 1.00 + Flamengo FBC W defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Flamengo FBC W attack 0.80 + UNSAAC W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

UNSAAC W scores more

63%

level

21%

Flamengo FBC W scores more

16%

UNSAAC W at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "UNSAAC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff