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University of Pretoria vs Moroka Swallows — Premier Soccer League 2018

University of Pretoria
University of Pretoria
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Moroka Swallows
Moroka Swallows
6/4/2022Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Playoffs - 1ABSA Tuks Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

University of Pretoria41%
×Draw36%
Moroka Swallows24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

University of Pretoria
0.91
Moroka Swallows
0.62

University of Pretoria creates 47% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 62 away

creates per match

University of Pretoria
0.75
Moroka Swallows
0.74

allows per match

University of Pretoria
0.50
Moroka Swallows
1.06

finishing

University of Pretoria+0.00on par
Moroka Swallows+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Under
  • Under80
  • Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

University of Pretoria ↓

Moroka Swallows →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–022%
0–113%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
78%22%1.5
45%55%2.5
20%80%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

University of Pretoria or draw
76%
University of Pretoria or Moroka Swallows
64%
Draw or Moroka Swallows
59%

Winning margin

University of Pretoria wins by 2+
15%
Moroka Swallows wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

University of Pretoria 1+ goals
60%
University of Pretoria 2+ goals
23%
University of Pretoria 3+ goals
6%
Moroka Swallows 1+ goals
46%
Moroka Swallows 2+ goals
13%
Moroka Swallows 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

University of Pretoria (draw refunded)
63%
Moroka Swallows (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

University of Pretoria at home — creates 0.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Moroka Swallows away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

University of Pretoria attack 0.75 + Moroka Swallows defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.91

Moroka Swallows attack 0.74 + University of Pretoria defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

University of Pretoria scores more
41%
level
36%
Moroka Swallows scores more
24%

University of Pretoria at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "University of Pretoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: University of Pretoria 0–0 Moroka Swallows

University of Pretoria and Moroka Swallows drew 0-0 in Premier Soccer League on June 4, 2022.

The match was played at ABSA Tuks Stadium in Tshwane.