University of Pretoria 1–0 Baroka FC

University of Pretoria

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Baroka FC

K. Pheeane 88'

6/2/2024

Premier Soccer League · Playoffs - 1Tuks Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

University of Pretoria46%

×Draw33%

Baroka FC21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

University of PretoriaExpected goals in this matchBaroka FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

0.63

University of Pretoria

1.07

Baroka FC

0.63

University of Pretoria creates 70% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 64 away

0.75

creates per match

0.75

0.50

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

University of Pretoria

0.75

Baroka FC

0.75

allows per match

University of Pretoria

0.50

Baroka FC

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

University of Pretoria+0.00on par

Baroka FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under76
Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

University of Pretoria ↓

Baroka FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

24%76%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

University of Pretoria or draw

79%

University of Pretoria or Baroka FC

67%

Draw or Baroka FC

54%

Winning margin

University of Pretoria wins by 2+

19%

Baroka FC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

University of Pretoria 1+ goals

66%

University of Pretoria 2+ goals

29%

University of Pretoria 3+ goals

9%

Baroka FC 1+ goals

47%

Baroka FC 2+ goals

13%

Baroka FC 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

University of Pretoria (draw refunded)

68%

Baroka FC (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

University of Pretoria at home — creates 0.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Baroka FC away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.39 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

University of Pretoria attack 0.75 + Baroka FC defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.07

Baroka FC attack 0.75 + University of Pretoria defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

University of Pretoria scores more

46%

level

33%

Baroka FC scores more

21%

University of Pretoria at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "University of Pretoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

42'

45+1'

79'

81'

K. Selemela← S. Malivha

87'

K. Kgositsile← K. Lekoloane

88'

K. Pheeane↳ S. Julies

90+4'

Thabang Sibanyoni

90+1'

Samuel Julies

90+3'

T. Makungo← K. Pheeane

90+3'

S. Gum← S. Julies

University4-1-4-1

Baroka4-3-3

39

Madingwan

28

Mtombeni

17

▼

Lekoloane

6

Sikhosana

10

Sithole

8

▼

3

21

36

4

31

16

4

15

37

14

19

28

⚽

▼

Pheeane

21

Marebane

23

A

▼

Julies

3

Abrahams

36

Sibanyoni

Manager: T. Motaung

90+3'▲T. Makungo←▼K. Pheeane

90+3'▲S. Gum←▼S. Julies

University of Pretoria substitutes

17Makungo24Gum11Mohlamonyane30Mampuru12Mokoena25Dlamini6Mkhuma20Mvambi26Tonisi

Manager: D. Malesela

81'▲K. Selemela←▼S. Malivha

87'▲K. Kgositsile←▼K. Lekoloane

Baroka FC substitutes

14Selemela12Kgositsile2Shozi7Mogale32Molefe5Ntsoane11Ndhlovu38Nyundu35Patjie

Match Recap: University of Pretoria vs Baroka FC

University of Pretoria beat Baroka FC 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on June 2, 2024.

Goals: K. Pheeane (88').

The match was played at Tuks Stadium in Tshwane.

University of Pretoria vs Baroka FC — Premier Soccer League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: University of Pretoria vs Baroka FC