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Baroka FC vs University of Pretoria — League #289 2026

Baroka FC
Baroka FC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
University of Pretoria
University of Pretoria
10/18/2025League #289League #289 · Round 7Old Peter Mokaba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Baroka FC31%
×Draw29%
University of Pretoria41%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baroka FC
1.02
University of Pretoria
1.23

University of Pretoria creates 21% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

creates per match

Baroka FC
0.67
University of Pretoria
1.45

allows per match

Baroka FC
1.00
University of Pretoria
1.36

finishing

Baroka FC+0.00on par
University of Pretoria+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baroka FC ↓

University of Pretoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Baroka FC or draw
59%
Baroka FC or University of Pretoria
71%
Draw or University of Pretoria
69%

Winning margin

Baroka FC wins by 2+
11%
University of Pretoria wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Baroka FC 1+ goals
64%
Baroka FC 2+ goals
27%
Baroka FC 3+ goals
8%
University of Pretoria 1+ goals
71%
University of Pretoria 2+ goals
35%
University of Pretoria 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Baroka FC (draw refunded)
43%
University of Pretoria (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baroka FC at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

University of Pretoria away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baroka FC attack 0.67 + University of Pretoria defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.02

University of Pretoria attack 1.45 + Baroka FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Baroka FC scores more
31%
level
29%
University of Pretoria scores more
41%

University of Pretoria at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "University of Pretoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #289: Baroka FC 0–2 University of Pretoria

University of Pretoria beat Baroka FC 2-0 in League #289 on October 18, 2025.

The match was played at Old Peter Mokaba Stadium in Polokwane.