University of Pretoria 1–3 Baroka FC

University of Pretoria

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Baroka FC

A. Mvambi 8'

N. Bombi 85', 64'

S. Ncanana 58' (OG)

1/14/2023

League #289 · Round 14ABSA Tuks Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

University of Pretoria40%

×Draw28%

Baroka FC33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

University of PretoriaExpected goals in this matchBaroka FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.13

University of Pretoria

1.27

Baroka FC

1.13

University of Pretoria creates 12% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 4 away

1.55

creates per match

1.25

1.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

University of Pretoria

1.55

Baroka FC

1.25

allows per match

University of Pretoria

1.00

Baroka FC

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

University of Pretoria+0.00on par

Baroka FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

University of Pretoria ↓

Baroka FC →

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

University of Pretoria or draw

67%

University of Pretoria or Baroka FC

72%

Draw or Baroka FC

60%

Winning margin

University of Pretoria wins by 2+

18%

Baroka FC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

University of Pretoria 1+ goals

72%

University of Pretoria 2+ goals

36%

University of Pretoria 3+ goals

14%

Baroka FC 1+ goals

68%

Baroka FC 2+ goals

31%

Baroka FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

University of Pretoria (draw refunded)

55%

Baroka FC (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

University of Pretoria at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Baroka FC away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

University of Pretoria attack 1.55 + Baroka FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.27

Baroka FC attack 1.25 + University of Pretoria defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

University of Pretoria scores more

40%

level

28%

Baroka FC scores more

33%

University of Pretoria at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "University of Pretoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

A. Mvambi

35'

S. Smith← L. van Heerden

46'

S. Mangoale← T. Mashiloane

58'

S. NcananaOwn goal

62'

N. Zwane← K. Marebane

62'

T. Mohlamonyane← D. Kazeem

64'

N. Bombi

68'

T. Nikitaridis← R. Ramagalela

85'

N. Bombi

90+6'

M. Shozi← D. Ndhlovu

90+6'

T. Mogale← S. Sithole

90+6'

T. Lekaba← N. Bombi

University

Baroka

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

🥅

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: T. Motaung

62'▲N. Zwane←▼K. Marebane

62'▲T. Mohlamonyane←▼D. Kazeem

68'▲T. Nikitaridis←▼R. Ramagalela

University of Pretoria substitutes

ZwaneMohlamonyaneNikitaridisMasiaNkewanaDikgaleMamaboloMokoenaDinge

Manager: B. Moloi

35'▲S. Smith←▼L. van Heerden

46'▲S. Mangoale←▼T. Mashiloane

90+6'▲M. Shozi←▼D. Ndhlovu

90+6'▲T. Mogale←▼S. Sithole

90+6'▲T. Lekaba←▼N. Bombi

Baroka FC substitutes

SmithMangoaleShoziMogaleLekabaMasediMolefeHlelaMahome