Universitatea Galaţi W 2–2 Vasas Femina W

Universitatea Galaţi W

FT

2 – 2

Vasas Femina W

11/11/2020

Liga 1 Feminin · Round 9Stadionul Siderurgistul

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Universitatea Galaţi W39%

×Draw20%

Vasas Femina W41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universitatea Galaţi WExpected goals in this matchVasas Femina W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.14

2.19

Universitatea Galaţi W

2.14

Vasas Femina W

2.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 58 away

1.03

creates per match

1.34

3.03

allows per match

3.24

creates per match

Universitatea Galaţi W

1.03

Vasas Femina W

1.34

allows per match

Universitatea Galaţi W

3.03

Vasas Femina W

3.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universitatea Galaţi W+0.00on par

Vasas Femina W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Galaţi W ↓

Vasas Femina W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Universitatea Galaţi W or draw

59%

Universitatea Galaţi W or Vasas Femina W

80%

Draw or Vasas Femina W

61%

Winning margin

Universitatea Galaţi W wins by 2+

22%

Vasas Femina W wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Universitatea Galaţi W 1+ goals

88%

Universitatea Galaţi W 2+ goals

63%

Universitatea Galaţi W 3+ goals

36%

Vasas Femina W 1+ goals

89%

Vasas Femina W 2+ goals

64%

Vasas Femina W 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Galaţi W (draw refunded)

49%

Vasas Femina W (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Galaţi W at home — creates 1.03, concedes 3.03 · 31 matches

Vasas Femina W away — creates 1.34, concedes 3.24 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Galaţi W attack 1.03 + Vasas Femina W defence 3.24 → ÷2 → 2.14

Vasas Femina W attack 1.34 + Universitatea Galaţi W defence 3.03 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Universitatea Galaţi W scores more

39%

level

20%

Vasas Femina W scores more

41%

Vasas Femina W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vasas Femina W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff