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Universitatea Galaţi W vs Universitatea Alexandria W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Universitatea Galaţi W
Universitatea Galaţi W
FT
3 – 2
Universitatea Alexandria W
Universitatea Alexandria W
10/18/2020Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Round 7Stadionul Siderurgistul

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Universitatea Galaţi W27%
×Draw18%
Universitatea Alexandria W55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitatea Galaţi W
2.00
Universitatea Alexandria W
2.86

Universitatea Alexandria W creates 43% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 45 away

creates per match

Universitatea Galaţi W
1.03
Universitatea Alexandria W
2.69

allows per match

Universitatea Galaţi W
3.03
Universitatea Alexandria W
2.98

finishing

Universitatea Galaţi W+0.00on par
Universitatea Alexandria W+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Galaţi W ↓

Universitatea Alexandria W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Universitatea Galaţi W or draw
45%
Universitatea Galaţi W or Universitatea Alexandria W
82%
Draw or Universitatea Alexandria W
73%

Winning margin

Universitatea Galaţi W wins by 2+
14%
Universitatea Alexandria W wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Universitatea Galaţi W 1+ goals
86%
Universitatea Galaţi W 2+ goals
59%
Universitatea Galaţi W 3+ goals
32%
Universitatea Alexandria W 1+ goals
94%
Universitatea Alexandria W 2+ goals
77%
Universitatea Alexandria W 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Galaţi W (draw refunded)
33%
Universitatea Alexandria W (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Galaţi W at home — creates 1.03, concedes 3.03 · 31 matches

Universitatea Alexandria W away — creates 2.69, concedes 2.98 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Galaţi W attack 1.03 + Universitatea Alexandria W defence 2.98 → ÷2 → 2.00

Universitatea Alexandria W attack 2.69 + Universitatea Galaţi W defence 3.03 → ÷2 → 2.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Universitatea Galaţi W scores more
27%
level
18%
Universitatea Alexandria W scores more
55%

Universitatea Alexandria W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Universitatea Alexandria W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Universitatea Galaţi W vs Universitatea Alexandria W

Universitatea Galaţi W beat Universitatea Alexandria W 3-2 in Liga 1 Feminin on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Stadionul Siderurgistul in Galaţi.