Universitatea Galaţi W 1–6 Olimpia Cluj W

Universitatea Galaţi W

FT

1 – 6

Olimpia Cluj W

9/25/2022

Liga 1 Feminin · Round 4Stadionul Siderurgistul

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Universitatea Galaţi W10%

×Draw13%

Olimpia Cluj W77%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universitatea Galaţi WExpected goals in this matchOlimpia Cluj W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

3.15

Universitatea Galaţi W

1.09

Olimpia Cluj W

3.15

Olimpia Cluj W creates 189% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 70 away

1.03

creates per match

3.27

3.03

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Universitatea Galaţi W

1.03

Olimpia Cluj W

3.27

allows per match

Universitatea Galaţi W

3.03

Olimpia Cluj W

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universitatea Galaţi W+0.00on par

Olimpia Cluj W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Galaţi W ↓

Olimpia Cluj W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–38%

0–46%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–39%

1–47%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–3 (9%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Universitatea Galaţi W or draw

23%

Universitatea Galaţi W or Olimpia Cluj W

87%

Draw or Olimpia Cluj W

90%

Winning margin

Universitatea Galaţi W wins by 2+

3%

Olimpia Cluj W wins by 2+

58%

Team goals

Universitatea Galaţi W 1+ goals

66%

Universitatea Galaţi W 2+ goals

30%

Universitatea Galaţi W 3+ goals

10%

Olimpia Cluj W 1+ goals

96%

Olimpia Cluj W 2+ goals

81%

Olimpia Cluj W 3+ goals

59%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Galaţi W (draw refunded)

12%

Olimpia Cluj W (draw refunded)

88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Galaţi W at home — creates 1.03, concedes 3.03 · 31 matches

Olimpia Cluj W away — creates 3.27, concedes 1.16 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Galaţi W attack 1.03 + Olimpia Cluj W defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.09

Olimpia Cluj W attack 3.27 + Universitatea Galaţi W defence 3.03 → ÷2 → 3.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Universitatea Galaţi W scores more

10%

level

13%

Olimpia Cluj W scores more

77%

Olimpia Cluj W at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Olimpia Cluj W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff