Universitatea Galaţi W 0–3 Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W

Universitatea Galaţi W

FT

0 – 3

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W

5/9/2021

Liga 1 Feminin · Championship Round - 6Stadionul Siderurgistul

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Universitatea Galaţi W13%

×Draw15%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W71%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universitatea Galaţi WExpected goals in this matchHeniu Prundu Bârgăului W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

2.92

Universitatea Galaţi W

1.22

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W

2.92

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W creates 139% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 22 away

1.03

creates per match

2.82

3.03

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Universitatea Galaţi W

1.03

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W

2.82

allows per match

Universitatea Galaţi W

3.03

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universitatea Galaţi W+0.00on par

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Galaţi W ↓

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–37%

0–45%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Universitatea Galaţi W or draw

29%

Universitatea Galaţi W or Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W

85%

Draw or Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W

87%

Winning margin

Universitatea Galaţi W wins by 2+

5%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W wins by 2+

51%

Team goals

Universitatea Galaţi W 1+ goals

70%

Universitatea Galaţi W 2+ goals

34%

Universitatea Galaţi W 3+ goals

12%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 1+ goals

94%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 2+ goals

78%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W 3+ goals

55%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Galaţi W (draw refunded)

16%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Galaţi W at home — creates 1.03, concedes 3.03 · 31 matches

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W away — creates 2.82, concedes 1.41 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Galaţi W attack 1.03 + Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.22

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W attack 2.82 + Universitatea Galaţi W defence 3.03 → ÷2 → 2.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Universitatea Galaţi W scores more

13%

level

15%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W scores more

71%

Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Heniu Prundu Bârgăului W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff