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Universitatea Galaţi W vs Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Universitatea Galaţi W
Universitatea Galaţi W
FT
0 – 1
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
5/16/2021Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Championship Round - 7Stadionul Siderurgistul

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Universitatea Galaţi W13%
×Draw17%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitatea Galaţi W
1.06
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
2.60

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W creates 145% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 11 away

creates per match

Universitatea Galaţi W
1.03
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
2.18

allows per match

Universitatea Galaţi W
3.03
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
1.09

finishing

Universitatea Galaţi W+0.00on par
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Galaţi W ↓

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Universitatea Galaţi W or draw
30%
Universitatea Galaţi W or Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
83%
Draw or Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W
87%

Winning margin

Universitatea Galaţi W wins by 2+
5%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

Universitatea Galaţi W 1+ goals
65%
Universitatea Galaţi W 2+ goals
29%
Universitatea Galaţi W 3+ goals
9%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W 1+ goals
92%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W 2+ goals
73%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Galaţi W (draw refunded)
16%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Galaţi W at home — creates 1.03, concedes 3.03 · 31 matches

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Galaţi W attack 1.03 + Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.06

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W attack 2.18 + Universitatea Galaţi W defence 3.03 → ÷2 → 2.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Universitatea Galaţi W scores more
13%
level
17%
Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W scores more
70%

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Universitatea Galaţi W vs Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W

Fortuna Becicherecu Mic W beat Universitatea Galaţi W 1-0 in Liga 1 Feminin on May 16, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Siderurgistul in Galaţi.