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Universitatea Galaţi W vs CSS Târgovişte W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Universitatea Galaţi W
Universitatea Galaţi W
FT
7 – 0
CSS Târgovişte W
CSS Târgovişte W
5/22/2022Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Relegation Round - 9Stadionul Comunal Schela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Universitatea Galaţi W67%
×Draw15%
CSS Târgovişte W18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitatea Galaţi W
3.37
CSS Târgovişte W
1.76

Universitatea Galaţi W creates 91% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 10 away

creates per match

Universitatea Galaţi W
1.03
CSS Târgovişte W
0.50

allows per match

Universitatea Galaţi W
3.03
CSS Târgovişte W
5.70

finishing

Universitatea Galaţi W+0.00on par
CSS Târgovişte W+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Galaţi W ↓

CSS Târgovişte W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
56%44%

Double chance

Universitatea Galaţi W or draw
82%
Universitatea Galaţi W or CSS Târgovişte W
85%
Draw or CSS Târgovişte W
33%

Winning margin

Universitatea Galaţi W wins by 2+
48%
CSS Târgovişte W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Universitatea Galaţi W 1+ goals
96%
Universitatea Galaţi W 2+ goals
84%
Universitatea Galaţi W 3+ goals
63%
CSS Târgovişte W 1+ goals
83%
CSS Târgovişte W 2+ goals
52%
CSS Târgovişte W 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Galaţi W (draw refunded)
79%
CSS Târgovişte W (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Galaţi W at home — creates 1.03, concedes 3.03 · 31 matches

CSS Târgovişte W away — creates 0.50, concedes 5.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Galaţi W attack 1.03 + CSS Târgovişte W defence 5.70 → ÷2 → 3.37

CSS Târgovişte W attack 0.50 + Universitatea Galaţi W defence 3.03 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Universitatea Galaţi W scores more
67%
level
15%
CSS Târgovişte W scores more
18%

Universitatea Galaţi W at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Universitatea Galaţi W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 1 Feminin: Universitatea Galaţi W 7–0 CSS Târgovişte W

Universitatea Galaţi W beat CSS Târgovişte W 7-0 in Liga 1 Feminin on May 22, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Comunal Schela in Schela.