Universitatea Craiova 3–0 Zorya Luhansk

Universitatea Craiova

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Zorya Luhansk

N. Bancu 56'

Ș. Baiaram 53'

Raúl Silva 5'

8/11/2022

UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying RoundComplex Sportiv Craiova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Universitatea Craiova71%

×Draw18%

Zorya Luhansk11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universitatea CraiovaExpected goals in this matchZorya Luhansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

0.75

Universitatea Craiova

2.26

Zorya Luhansk

0.75

Universitatea Craiova creates 201% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

2.09

creates per match

0.86

0.64

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Universitatea Craiova

2.09

Zorya Luhansk

0.86

allows per match

Universitatea Craiova

0.64

Zorya Luhansk

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

Zorya Luhansk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Craiova ↓

Zorya Luhansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Universitatea Craiova or draw

89%

Universitatea Craiova or Zorya Luhansk

82%

Draw or Zorya Luhansk

29%

Winning margin

Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+

47%

Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals

89%

Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals

66%

Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals

39%

Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals

53%

Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals

17%

Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)

87%

Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

Zorya Luhansk away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Craiova attack 2.09 + Zorya Luhansk defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.26

Zorya Luhansk attack 0.86 + Universitatea Craiova defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Universitatea Craiova scores more

71%

level

18%

Zorya Luhansk scores more

11%

Universitatea Craiova at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

Raúl Silva

29'

M. Smiyan← R. Vantukh

30'

45'

53'

56'

58'

D. Bezborodko← V. Kabaev

58'

D. Myshnov← D. Nagnoynyi

66'

M. Căpățînă← A. Crețu

66'

J. Marković← E. Koljić

71'

Raúl Silva

71'

Egor Nazaryna

74'

A. Roguljić← Ș. Baiaram

74'

B. Vătăjelu← S. Hanca

89'

D. Alefirenko← O. Danchenko

90+1'

Alexandru Mateiu

90+1'

Alexandru Mateiu

90+2'

Rivaldinho← A. Ivan

Statistics

UniversitateaZorya

Overview

5Corners4

Discipline

4Yellow Cards1