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Universitatea Craiova vs Uta Arad — Liga I 2018

Universitatea Craiova
Universitatea Craiova
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Uta Arad
Uta Arad
7/20/2024Liga ILiga I · Round 2Complex Sportiv Craiova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 116+ matches

Universitatea Craiova51%
×Draw27%
Uta Arad22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitatea Craiova
1.42
Uta Arad
0.84

Universitatea Craiova creates 69% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 116 away

creates per match

Universitatea Craiova
1.63
Uta Arad
0.88

allows per match

Universitatea Craiova
0.81
Uta Arad
1.21

finishing

Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par
Uta Arad+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Craiova ↓

Uta Arad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Universitatea Craiova or draw
78%
Universitatea Craiova or Uta Arad
73%
Draw or Uta Arad
49%

Winning margin

Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+
25%
Uta Arad wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals
76%
Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
41%
Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals
17%
Uta Arad 1+ goals
57%
Uta Arad 2+ goals
21%
Uta Arad 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)
69%
Uta Arad (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.81 · 156 matches

Uta Arad away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.21 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Craiova attack 1.63 + Uta Arad defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.42

Uta Arad attack 0.88 + Universitatea Craiova defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Universitatea Craiova scores more
51%
level
27%
Uta Arad scores more
22%

Universitatea Craiova at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Universitatea Craiova 4–2 Uta Arad

Universitatea Craiova beat Uta Arad 4-2 in Liga I on July 20, 2024.

The match was played at Complex Sportiv Craiova in Craiova.