Universitatea Craiova 3–0 Uta Arad: Result & Stats

Universitatea Craiova

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Uta Arad

V. Screciu 88'

A. Crețu 58'

Ș. Baiaram 8'

8/18/2023

Liga I · Round 6Complex Sportiv Craiova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Universitatea Craiova51%

×Draw23%

Uta Arad27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universitatea CraiovaExpected goals in this matchUta Arad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.29

Universitatea Craiova

1.86

Uta Arad

1.29

Universitatea Craiova creates 44% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

2.03

creates per match

1.28

1.31

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Universitatea Craiova

2.03

Uta Arad

1.28

allows per match

Universitatea Craiova

1.31

Uta Arad

1.69

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

-0.37scores less than expected

finishing

Universitatea Craiova-0.60scores less

Uta Arad-0.37scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Craiova ↓

Uta Arad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Universitatea Craiova or draw

73%

Universitatea Craiova or Uta Arad

77%

Draw or Uta Arad

49%

Winning margin

Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+

28%

Uta Arad wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals

84%

Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals

55%

Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals

28%

Uta Arad 1+ goals

72%

Uta Arad 2+ goals

37%

Uta Arad 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)

66%

Uta Arad (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.31 · 7 matches

Uta Arad away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.69 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Craiova attack 2.03 + Uta Arad defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.86

Uta Arad attack 1.28 + Universitatea Craiova defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Universitatea Craiova scores more

51%

level

23%

Uta Arad scores more

27%

Universitatea Craiova at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

N. Bancu

Universitatea Craiova · D

9.0

Match Events

8'

Ș. Baiaram↳ N. Bancu

37'

Aly Abeid

45'

Raúl SilvaGoal cancelled

46'

G. Cîmpanu← A. Ișfan

46'

A. Mateiu← Raúl Silva

48'

Alexandru Crețu

54'

M. Căpățînă← Ș. Vlădoiu

58'

A. Crețu↳ N. Bancu

62'

J. Kurtič← J. Marković

63'

A. Stahl← D. Dumitrașcu

63'

C. Carp← Marcelo Freitas

69'

Andrej Fábry

70'

K. Leidsman← G. Cooper

70'

R. Stanciu← R. Pop

75'

M. Danciu← Ș. Baiaram

75'

F. Holst← A. Fábry

88'

V. Screciu↳ A. Ivan

90'

Vladimir ScreciuGoal confirmed

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UniversitateaUta

Overview

68%Possession32%

11Total Shots12

0.82Expected Goals (xG)1.04

4Corners4

12Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots12

5On Target1

4Off Target9

2Blocked2

5Inside Box9

6Outside Box3

Passing

68%Possession32%

679Total Passes310

587Accurate Passes228

86%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

4Offsides2