Universitatea Craiova 2–1 Uta Arad: Result & Stats

Universitatea Craiova

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Uta Arad

E. Koljić 65'

J. Marković 52'

I. Batha 39'

3/10/2023

Liga I · Round 30Complex Sportiv Craiova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Universitatea Craiova54%

×Draw22%

Uta Arad24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universitatea CraiovaExpected goals in this matchUta Arad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.23

Universitatea Craiova

1.96

Uta Arad

1.23

Universitatea Craiova creates 59% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

2.15

creates per match

1.31

1.14

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Universitatea Craiova

2.15

Uta Arad

1.31

allows per match

Universitatea Craiova

1.14

Uta Arad

1.78

-0.95scores less than expected

finishing

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

Universitatea Craiova-0.95scores less

Uta Arad-0.31scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Craiova ↓

Uta Arad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Universitatea Craiova or draw

76%

Universitatea Craiova or Uta Arad

78%

Draw or Uta Arad

46%

Winning margin

Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+

31%

Uta Arad wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals

86%

Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals

58%

Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals

31%

Uta Arad 1+ goals

71%

Uta Arad 2+ goals

35%

Uta Arad 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)

69%

Uta Arad (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.14 · 5 matches

Uta Arad away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.78 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Craiova attack 2.15 + Uta Arad defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.96

Uta Arad attack 1.31 + Universitatea Craiova defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Universitatea Craiova scores more

54%

level

22%

Uta Arad scores more

24%

Universitatea Craiova at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

I. Batha↳ Roger Junio

46'

E. Koljić← Ș. Baiaram

46'

G. Cîmpanu← A. Ișfan

49'

Danilo Kucher

52'

J. Marković↳ G. Zajkov

55'

P. Otele← S. Milošević

62'

A. Crețu← Raúl Silva

65'

E. Koljić↳ A. Crețu

69'

Ș. Vlădoiu← B. Vătăjelu

69'

A. Stahl← Willie

69'

P. Anton← J. Cascini

78'

Rivaldinho← J. Marković

82'

P. Pașcalău← R. Pop

Possession

Shots

Statistics

UniversitateaUta

Overview

59%Possession41%

15Total Shots10

3Corners8

6Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots10

4On Target3

7Off Target5

4Blocked2

Passing

59%Possession41%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

6Fouls15

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Universitatea Craiova vs Uta Arad

Universitatea Craiova beat Uta Arad 2-1 in Liga I on March 10, 2023.

Goals: I. Batha (39'), J. Marković (52'), E. Koljić (65').

Universitatea Craiova controlled possession (59%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at Complex Sportiv Craiova in Craiova.

Universitatea Craiova vs Uta Arad — Liga I 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Match Recap: Universitatea Craiova vs Uta Arad