Universitatea Craiova 3–0 Spartak Trnava

Universitatea Craiova

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Spartak Trnava

8/7/2025

UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying RoundStadionul Ion Oblemenco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Universitatea Craiova67%

×Draw21%

Spartak Trnava12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universitatea CraiovaExpected goals in this matchSpartak Trnava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

0.70

Universitatea Craiova

1.96

Spartak Trnava

0.70

Universitatea Craiova creates 180% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

2.09

creates per match

0.75

0.64

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Universitatea Craiova

2.09

Spartak Trnava

0.75

allows per match

Universitatea Craiova

0.64

Spartak Trnava

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

Spartak Trnava+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Craiova ↓

Spartak Trnava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Universitatea Craiova or draw

88%

Universitatea Craiova or Spartak Trnava

79%

Draw or Spartak Trnava

33%

Winning margin

Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+

41%

Spartak Trnava wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals

86%

Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals

58%

Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals

31%

Spartak Trnava 1+ goals

50%

Spartak Trnava 2+ goals

16%

Spartak Trnava 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)

84%

Spartak Trnava (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

Spartak Trnava away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Craiova attack 2.09 + Spartak Trnava defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.96

Spartak Trnava attack 0.75 + Universitatea Craiova defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Universitatea Craiova scores more

67%

level

21%

Spartak Trnava scores more

12%

Universitatea Craiova at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff