Universitatea Craiova 1–2 Sparta Praha

Universitatea Craiova

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Sparta Praha

12/11/2025

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 5Stadionul Ion Oblemenco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Universitatea Craiova58%

×Draw24%

Sparta Praha18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universitatea CraiovaExpected goals in this matchSparta Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.82

Universitatea Craiova

1.71

Sparta Praha

0.82

Universitatea Craiova creates 109% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

2.09

creates per match

1.00

0.64

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Universitatea Craiova

2.09

Sparta Praha

1.00

allows per match

Universitatea Craiova

0.64

Sparta Praha

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

Sparta Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Craiova ↓

Sparta Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Universitatea Craiova or draw

82%

Universitatea Craiova or Sparta Praha

76%

Draw or Sparta Praha

42%

Winning margin

Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+

33%

Sparta Praha wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals

82%

Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals

51%

Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals

24%

Sparta Praha 1+ goals

56%

Sparta Praha 2+ goals

20%

Sparta Praha 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)

77%

Sparta Praha (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

Sparta Praha away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Craiova attack 2.09 + Sparta Praha defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.71

Sparta Praha attack 1.00 + Universitatea Craiova defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Universitatea Craiova scores more

58%

level

24%

Sparta Praha scores more

18%

Universitatea Craiova at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff