Universitatea Craiova 2–0 Petrolul Ploiesti

Universitatea Craiova

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Petrolul Ploiesti

8/24/2025

Liga I · Round 7Stadionul Ion Oblemenco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Universitatea Craiova52%

×Draw27%

Petrolul Ploiesti21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universitatea CraiovaExpected goals in this matchPetrolul Ploiesti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.80

Universitatea Craiova

1.43

Petrolul Ploiesti

0.80

Universitatea Craiova creates 79% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 77 away

1.63

creates per match

0.78

0.81

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Universitatea Craiova

1.63

Petrolul Ploiesti

0.78

allows per match

Universitatea Craiova

0.81

Petrolul Ploiesti

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

Petrolul Ploiesti+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Craiova ↓

Petrolul Ploiesti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Universitatea Craiova or draw

79%

Universitatea Craiova or Petrolul Ploiesti

73%

Draw or Petrolul Ploiesti

48%

Winning margin

Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+

26%

Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals

76%

Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals

42%

Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals

17%

Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals

55%

Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals

19%

Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)

71%

Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.81 · 156 matches

Petrolul Ploiesti away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.23 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Craiova attack 1.63 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.43

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 0.78 + Universitatea Craiova defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Universitatea Craiova scores more

52%

level

27%

Petrolul Ploiesti scores more

21%

Universitatea Craiova at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff