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Universitatea Craiova vs Maribor — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Universitatea Craiova
Universitatea Craiova
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Maribor
Maribor
8/1/2024UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundComplex Sportiv Craiova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Universitatea Craiova62%
×Draw22%
Maribor15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitatea Craiova
1.82
Maribor
0.77

Universitatea Craiova creates 136% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

creates per match

Universitatea Craiova
2.09
Maribor
0.89

allows per match

Universitatea Craiova
0.64
Maribor
1.56

finishing

Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par
Maribor+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Craiova ↓

Maribor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Universitatea Craiova or draw
85%
Universitatea Craiova or Maribor
78%
Draw or Maribor
38%

Winning margin

Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+
36%
Maribor wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals
84%
Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
54%
Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals
27%
Maribor 1+ goals
54%
Maribor 2+ goals
18%
Maribor 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)
80%
Maribor (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

Maribor away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Craiova attack 2.09 + Maribor defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.82

Maribor attack 0.89 + Universitatea Craiova defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Universitatea Craiova scores more
62%
level
22%
Maribor scores more
15%

Universitatea Craiova at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Universitatea Craiova vs Maribor

Universitatea Craiova beat Maribor 3-2 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 1, 2024.

The match was played at Complex Sportiv Craiova in Craiova.