Universitatea Craiova vs Hapoel Beer Sheva — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 11+ matches
Universitatea Craiova54%
Hapoel Beer Sheva21%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Universitatea Craiova creates 81% more chances
Season form · 11 home / 14 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under57
- Over43
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No55
- Yes45
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Universitatea Craiova ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches
Hapoel Beer Sheva away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Universitatea Craiova attack 2.09 + Hapoel Beer Sheva defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.54
Hapoel Beer Sheva attack 1.07 + Universitatea Craiova defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.85
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 54%?"
Universitatea Craiova at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 54% does not mean "Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Universitatea Craiova host Hapoel Beer Sheva on Thursday, 18 August 2022 at 17:30. The match is part of the UEFA Europa Conference League 2021/2022 season.
UEFA Europa Conference League: Universitatea Craiova 1–1 Hapoel Beer Sheva
Universitatea Craiova and Hapoel Beer Sheva drew 1-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 18, 2022.
Goals: R. Hatuel (70'), A. Ivan (75' pen).
The match was played at Stadionul Municipal in Drobeta-Turnu Severin.