Universitatea Craiova 1–0 FSV Mainz 05

Universitatea Craiova

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FSV Mainz 05

11/27/2025

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 4Stadionul Ion Oblemenco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Universitatea Craiova65%

×Draw23%

FSV Mainz 0512%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universitatea CraiovaExpected goals in this matchFSV Mainz 05

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.57

Universitatea Craiova

1.71

FSV Mainz 05

0.57

Universitatea Craiova creates 200% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

2.09

creates per match

0.50

0.64

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Universitatea Craiova

2.09

FSV Mainz 05

0.50

allows per match

Universitatea Craiova

0.64

FSV Mainz 05

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

FSV Mainz 05+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Craiova ↓

FSV Mainz 05 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Universitatea Craiova or draw

88%

Universitatea Craiova or FSV Mainz 05

77%

Draw or FSV Mainz 05

35%

Winning margin

Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+

38%

FSV Mainz 05 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals

82%

Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals

51%

Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals

24%

FSV Mainz 05 1+ goals

43%

FSV Mainz 05 2+ goals

11%

FSV Mainz 05 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)

85%

FSV Mainz 05 (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

FSV Mainz 05 away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Craiova attack 2.09 + FSV Mainz 05 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.71

FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.50 + Universitatea Craiova defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Universitatea Craiova scores more

65%

level

23%

FSV Mainz 05 scores more

12%

Universitatea Craiova at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff