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Universitatea Craiova vs FC Noah — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Universitatea Craiova
Universitatea Craiova
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FC Noah
FC Noah
10/23/2025UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 2Stadionul Ion Oblemenco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Universitatea Craiova71%
×Draw18%
FC Noah11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitatea Craiova
2.27
FC Noah
0.78

Universitatea Craiova creates 191% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

creates per match

Universitatea Craiova
2.09
FC Noah
0.92

allows per match

Universitatea Craiova
0.64
FC Noah
2.46

finishing

Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par
FC Noah+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Craiova ↓

FC Noah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Universitatea Craiova or draw
89%
Universitatea Craiova or FC Noah
82%
Draw or FC Noah
29%

Winning margin

Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+
47%
FC Noah wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals
90%
Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
66%
Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals
39%
FC Noah 1+ goals
54%
FC Noah 2+ goals
18%
FC Noah 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)
86%
FC Noah (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

FC Noah away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Craiova attack 2.09 + FC Noah defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.27

FC Noah attack 0.92 + Universitatea Craiova defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Universitatea Craiova scores more
71%
level
18%
FC Noah scores more
11%

Universitatea Craiova at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Universitatea Craiova 1–1 FC Noah

Universitatea Craiova and FC Noah drew 1-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on October 23, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Ion Oblemenco in Craiova.