Universitatea Craiova 1–2 Farul Constanta

Universitatea Craiova

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Farul Constanta

A. Crețu 36'

L. Munteanu 43'

Rivaldinho 14'

1/21/2024

Liga I · Round 22Complex Sportiv Craiova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Universitatea Craiova51%

×Draw21%

Farul Constanta28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universitatea CraiovaExpected goals in this matchFarul Constanta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.53

Universitatea Craiova

2.12

Farul Constanta

1.53

Universitatea Craiova creates 39% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

2.23

creates per match

1.70

1.36

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Universitatea Craiova

2.23

Farul Constanta

1.70

allows per match

Universitatea Craiova

1.36

Farul Constanta

2.01

-1.06scores less than expected

finishing

-0.56scores less than expected

finishing

Universitatea Craiova-1.06scores less

Farul Constanta-0.56scores less

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Craiova ↓

Farul Constanta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Universitatea Craiova or draw

72%

Universitatea Craiova or Farul Constanta

79%

Draw or Farul Constanta

49%

Winning margin

Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+

30%

Farul Constanta wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals

88%

Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals

62%

Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals

35%

Farul Constanta 1+ goals

78%

Farul Constanta 2+ goals

45%

Farul Constanta 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)

65%

Farul Constanta (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.36 · 6 matches

Farul Constanta away — creates 1.70, concedes 2.01 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Craiova attack 2.23 + Farul Constanta defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 2.12

Farul Constanta attack 1.70 + Universitatea Craiova defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Universitatea Craiova scores more

51%

level

21%

Farul Constanta scores more

28%

Universitatea Craiova at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

A. Mitriță

Universitatea Craiova · M

8.6

Match Events

14'

Rivaldinho

36'

A. Crețu

41'

Ștefan Baiaram

43'

L. Munteanu↳ N. Grigoryan

58'

L. Houri← A. Mateiu

58'

D. Kiki← N. Grigoryan

59'

C. Ganea← Rivaldinho

65'

J. Marković← E. Koljić

65'

P. Soiri← Ș. Vlădoiu

65'

M. Căpățînă← A. Ivan

73'

D. Nedelcu← Diogo Queirós

81'

M. Danciu← Ș. Baiaram

83'

N. Popescu← R. Deaconu

83'

L. Banu← I. Vînă

89'

Louis Munteanu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UniversitateaFarul

Overview

58%Possession42%

21Total Shots16

2.65Expected Goals (xG)2.44

9Corners4

17Fouls9

Shots

21Total Shots16

8On Target7

6Off Target7

7Blocked2

13Inside Box10

8Outside Box6

Passing

58%Possession42%

507Total Passes385

413Accurate Passes287

81%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

4Saves7

Discipline

17Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3