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Farul Constanta vs Universitatea Craiova — Liga I 2018

Farul Constanta
Farul Constanta
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Universitatea Craiova
Universitatea Craiova
5/13/2024Liga ILiga I · Championship Round - 9Stadionul Central

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Farul Constanta40%
×Draw27%
Universitatea Craiova33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Farul Constanta
1.35
Universitatea Craiova
1.21

Farul Constanta creates 12% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 155 away

creates per match

Farul Constanta
1.59
Universitatea Craiova
1.38

allows per match

Farul Constanta
1.04
Universitatea Craiova
1.12

finishing

Farul Constanta+0.00on par
Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farul Constanta ↓

Universitatea Craiova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Farul Constanta or draw
67%
Farul Constanta or Universitatea Craiova
73%
Draw or Universitatea Craiova
60%

Winning margin

Farul Constanta wins by 2+
18%
Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Farul Constanta 1+ goals
74%
Farul Constanta 2+ goals
39%
Farul Constanta 3+ goals
15%
Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals
70%
Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
34%
Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Farul Constanta (draw refunded)
54%
Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farul Constanta at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.04 · 100 matches

Universitatea Craiova away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.12 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farul Constanta attack 1.59 + Universitatea Craiova defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.35

Universitatea Craiova attack 1.38 + Farul Constanta defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Farul Constanta scores more
40%
level
27%
Universitatea Craiova scores more
33%

Farul Constanta at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Farul Constanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Farul Constanta vs Universitatea Craiova

Farul Constanta and Universitatea Craiova drew 3-3 in Liga I on May 13, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Central in Ovidiu.