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Universitatea Craiova vs Dinamo Bucuresti — Liga I 2018

Universitatea Craiova
Universitatea Craiova
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Dinamo Bucuresti
Dinamo Bucuresti
9/26/2025Liga ILiga I · Round 11Stadionul Ion Oblemenco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 138+ matches

Universitatea Craiova54%
×Draw25%
Dinamo Bucuresti21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitatea Craiova
1.63
Dinamo Bucuresti
0.90

Universitatea Craiova creates 81% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 138 away

creates per match

Universitatea Craiova
1.63
Dinamo Bucuresti
0.99

allows per match

Universitatea Craiova
0.81
Dinamo Bucuresti
1.62

finishing

Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par
Dinamo Bucuresti+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Craiova ↓

Dinamo Bucuresti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Universitatea Craiova or draw
79%
Universitatea Craiova or Dinamo Bucuresti
75%
Draw or Dinamo Bucuresti
46%

Winning margin

Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+
29%
Dinamo Bucuresti wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals
80%
Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
48%
Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals
22%
Dinamo Bucuresti 1+ goals
59%
Dinamo Bucuresti 2+ goals
23%
Dinamo Bucuresti 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)
72%
Dinamo Bucuresti (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.81 · 156 matches

Dinamo Bucuresti away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.62 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Craiova attack 1.63 + Dinamo Bucuresti defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.63

Dinamo Bucuresti attack 0.99 + Universitatea Craiova defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Universitatea Craiova scores more
54%
level
25%
Dinamo Bucuresti scores more
21%

Universitatea Craiova at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Universitatea Craiova 2–2 Dinamo Bucuresti

Universitatea Craiova and Dinamo Bucuresti drew 2-2 in Liga I on September 26, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Ion Oblemenco in Craiova.