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Universitatea Craiova vs CSKA 1948 — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Universitatea Craiova
Universitatea Craiova
CANC
12:00
CSKA 1948
CSKA 1948
1/12/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Ogosta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Universitatea Craiova41%
×Draw26%
CSKA 194833%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitatea Craiova
1.39
CSKA 1948
1.21

Universitatea Craiova creates 15% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

Universitatea Craiova
1.00
CSKA 1948
0.92

allows per match

Universitatea Craiova
1.50
CSKA 1948
1.77

finishing

Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par
CSKA 1948+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Craiova ↓

CSKA 1948 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Universitatea Craiova or draw
67%
Universitatea Craiova or CSKA 1948
74%
Draw or CSKA 1948
59%

Winning margin

Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+
19%
CSKA 1948 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals
75%
Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
40%
Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals
16%
CSKA 1948 1+ goals
70%
CSKA 1948 2+ goals
34%
CSKA 1948 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)
56%
CSKA 1948 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

CSKA 1948 away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Craiova attack 1.00 + CSKA 1948 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.39

CSKA 1948 attack 0.92 + Universitatea Craiova defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Universitatea Craiova scores more
41%
level
26%
CSKA 1948 scores more
33%

Universitatea Craiova at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Universitatea Craiova host CSKA 1948

January 12, 2024: Universitatea Craiova take on CSKA 1948 in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Universitatea Craiova host CSKA 1948 at Stadion Ogosta.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.