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Universitatea Craiova vs CFR 1907 Cluj — Liga I 2018

Universitatea Craiova
Universitatea Craiova
Preview
17:00
CFR 1907 Cluj
CFR 1907 Cluj
3/13/2027Liga ILiga I · Round 30Stadionul Ion Oblemenco
Big match
40%
Universitatea Craiova
model favours
40%27%33%

Universitatea Craiova are unbeaten in 10 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 154+ matches

Universitatea Craiova40%
×Draw27%
CFR 1907 Cluj33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitatea Craiova
1.29
CFR 1907 Cluj
1.14

Universitatea Craiova creates 13% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 154 away

creates per match

Universitatea Craiova
1.63
CFR 1907 Cluj
1.47

allows per match

Universitatea Craiova
0.81
CFR 1907 Cluj
0.95

finishing

Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par
CFR 1907 Cluj+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Craiova ↓

CFR 1907 Cluj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Universitatea Craiova or draw
67%
Universitatea Craiova or CFR 1907 Cluj
73%
Draw or CFR 1907 Cluj
60%

Winning margin

Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+
18%
CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals
72%
Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
37%
Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals
14%
CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals
68%
CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals
32%
CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)
55%
CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.81 · 156 matches

CFR 1907 Cluj away — creates 1.47, concedes 0.95 · 154 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Craiova attack 1.63 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.29

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 1.47 + Universitatea Craiova defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Universitatea Craiova scores more
40%
level
27%
CFR 1907 Cluj scores more
33%

Universitatea Craiova at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • CFR 1907 Cluj are unbeaten in 7 straight
  • 85% of CFR 1907 Cluj’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Universitatea Craiova 1 vs CFR 1907 Cluj 4

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Craiova
WDWWD
Cluj
WDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Universitatea Craiova host CFR 1907 Cluj

March 13, 2027: Universitatea Craiova take on CFR 1907 Cluj in Liga I. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Universitatea Craiova host CFR 1907 Cluj at Stadionul Ion Oblemenco.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.