CFR 1907 Cluj 2–3 Universitatea Craiova

CFR 1907 Cluj

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Universitatea Craiova

8/3/2025

Liga I · Round 4Stadionul Dr. Constantin Rădulescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 155+ matches

CFR 1907 Cluj47%

×Draw26%

Universitatea Craiova27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CFR 1907 ClujExpected goals in this matchUniversitatea Craiova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.06

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.47

Universitatea Craiova

1.06

CFR 1907 Cluj creates 39% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 155 away

1.81

creates per match

1.38

0.74

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.81

Universitatea Craiova

1.38

allows per match

CFR 1907 Cluj

0.74

Universitatea Craiova

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CFR 1907 Cluj+0.00on par

Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CFR 1907 Cluj ↓

Universitatea Craiova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

CFR 1907 Cluj or draw

73%

CFR 1907 Cluj or Universitatea Craiova

74%

Draw or Universitatea Craiova

53%

Winning margin

CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+

23%

Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals

77%

CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals

43%

CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals

18%

Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals

65%

Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals

29%

Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)

63%

Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CFR 1907 Cluj at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.74 · 156 matches

Universitatea Craiova away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.12 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 1.81 + Universitatea Craiova defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.47

Universitatea Craiova attack 1.38 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

CFR 1907 Cluj scores more

47%

level

26%

Universitatea Craiova scores more

27%

CFR 1907 Cluj at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "CFR 1907 Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff