Universitatea Cluj 1–1 Uta Arad: Result & Stats

Universitatea Cluj

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Uta Arad

E. Capradossi 57'

D. Zsori 30'

7/19/2025

Liga I · Round 2Cluj Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Universitatea Cluj43%

×Draw25%

Uta Arad32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universitatea ClujExpected goals in this matchUta Arad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.25

Universitatea Cluj

1.49

Uta Arad

1.25

Universitatea Cluj creates 19% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

1.29

creates per match

1.28

1.21

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Universitatea Cluj

1.29

Uta Arad

1.28

allows per match

Universitatea Cluj

1.21

Uta Arad

1.69

-0.09on par

finishing

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

Universitatea Cluj-0.09on par

Uta Arad-0.36scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Cluj ↓

Uta Arad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Universitatea Cluj or draw

68%

Universitatea Cluj or Uta Arad

75%

Draw or Uta Arad

57%

Winning margin

Universitatea Cluj wins by 2+

21%

Uta Arad wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Universitatea Cluj 1+ goals

77%

Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals

44%

Universitatea Cluj 3+ goals

19%

Uta Arad 1+ goals

71%

Uta Arad 2+ goals

36%

Uta Arad 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Cluj (draw refunded)

57%

Uta Arad (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Cluj at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.21 · 5 matches

Uta Arad away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.69 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Cluj attack 1.29 + Uta Arad defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.49

Uta Arad attack 1.28 + Universitatea Cluj defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Universitatea Cluj scores more

43%

level

25%

Uta Arad scores more

32%

Universitatea Cluj at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Universitatea Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

93

M. Thiam

Universitatea Cluj · F

8.0

Match Events

30'

42'

46'

46'

46'

57'

E. Capradossi↳ D. Nistor

58'

61'

72'

74'

79'

80'

83'

84'

D. Codrea← E. Capradossi

90+1'

Denis Hrezdac

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UniversitateaUta

Overview

70%Possession30%

26Total Shots15

2.24Expected Goals (xG)1.72

4Corners2

8Fouls9

Shots

26Total Shots15

4On Target6

14Off Target7

8Blocked2

18Inside Box9

8Outside Box6

Passing

70%Possession30%

616Total Passes264

540Accurate Passes183

88%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls9

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Universitatea Cluj vs Uta Arad

Universitatea Cluj and Uta Arad drew 1-1 in Liga I on July 19, 2025.

Goals: D. Zsori (30'), E. Capradossi (57').

Universitatea Cluj controlled possession (70%) and registered 26 shots to 15.

The match was played at Cluj Arena in Cluj-Napoca.

Universitatea Cluj vs Uta Arad — Liga I 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Universitatea Cluj vs Uta Arad