Universitatea Cluj 1–3 Uta Arad: Result & Stats

Universitatea Cluj

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Uta Arad

2/4/2024

Liga I · Round 24Cluj Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Universitatea Cluj44%

×Draw26%

Uta Arad30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universitatea ClujExpected goals in this matchUta Arad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.14

Universitatea Cluj

1.43

Uta Arad

1.14

Universitatea Cluj creates 25% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

1.17

creates per match

1.19

1.09

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Universitatea Cluj

1.17

Uta Arad

1.19

allows per match

Universitatea Cluj

1.09

Uta Arad

1.69

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

Universitatea Cluj-0.31scores less

Uta Arad-0.33scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Cluj ↓

Uta Arad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Universitatea Cluj or draw

70%

Universitatea Cluj or Uta Arad

74%

Draw or Uta Arad

56%

Winning margin

Universitatea Cluj wins by 2+

21%

Uta Arad wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Universitatea Cluj 1+ goals

76%

Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals

42%

Universitatea Cluj 3+ goals

17%

Uta Arad 1+ goals

68%

Uta Arad 2+ goals

32%

Uta Arad 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Cluj (draw refunded)

59%

Uta Arad (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Cluj at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.09 · 7 matches

Uta Arad away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.69 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Cluj attack 1.17 + Uta Arad defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.43

Uta Arad attack 1.19 + Universitatea Cluj defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Universitatea Cluj scores more

44%

level

26%

Uta Arad scores more

30%

Universitatea Cluj at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Universitatea Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff