Universitatea Cluj 1–2 Unirea Slobozia

Universitatea Cluj

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Unirea Slobozia

F. Haită 62'

S. Ivan 90+5'

C. Toma 12'

4/30/2022

Liga II · Promotion Round - 7Cluj Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Universitatea Cluj44%

×Draw26%

Unirea Slobozia29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universitatea ClujExpected goals in this matchUnirea Slobozia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.10

Universitatea Cluj

1.42

Unirea Slobozia

1.10

Universitatea Cluj creates 29% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 55 away

1.74

creates per match

1.31

0.89

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Universitatea Cluj

1.74

Unirea Slobozia

1.31

allows per match

Universitatea Cluj

0.89

Unirea Slobozia

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universitatea Cluj+0.00on par

Unirea Slobozia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Cluj ↓

Unirea Slobozia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Universitatea Cluj or draw

71%

Universitatea Cluj or Unirea Slobozia

74%

Draw or Unirea Slobozia

56%

Winning margin

Universitatea Cluj wins by 2+

21%

Unirea Slobozia wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Universitatea Cluj 1+ goals

76%

Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals

41%

Universitatea Cluj 3+ goals

17%

Unirea Slobozia 1+ goals

67%

Unirea Slobozia 2+ goals

30%

Unirea Slobozia 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Cluj (draw refunded)

60%

Unirea Slobozia (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Cluj at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.89 · 46 matches

Unirea Slobozia away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.09 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Cluj attack 1.74 + Unirea Slobozia defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.42

Unirea Slobozia attack 1.31 + Universitatea Cluj defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Universitatea Cluj scores more

44%

level

26%

Unirea Slobozia scores more

29%

Universitatea Cluj at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Universitatea Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

C. Toma

40'

A. Traşcu← A. Cruceru

42'

F. Ibrian

46'

M. Ciobanu-Vanghele← A. Hofman

46'

Ely Fernandes← Sérgio Ribeiro

52'

A. Trascu

56'

56'

62'

63'

69'

C. Gherghiceanu← R. Silaghi

69'

R. Greu← V. Gulceac

70'

A. Boiciuc← V. Alexandru

74'

R. Greu

90'

S. Ivan← I. Coadă

90+5'

S. Ivan

Universitatea

Unirea

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: E. Lincar

46'▲M. Ciobanu-Vanghele←▼A. Hofman

46'▲Ely Fernandes←▼Sérgio Ribeiro

56'▲F. Haită←▼R. Romeo

56'▲C. Balgiu←▼I. Filip

70'▲A. Boiciuc←▼V. Alexandru

Universitatea Cluj substitutes

Ciobanu-VangheleFernandesHaităBalgiuBoiciuc

Manager: A. Mihalcea

40'▲A. Traşcu←▼A. Cruceru

69'▲C. Gherghiceanu←▼R. Silaghi

69'▲R. Greu←▼V. Gulceac

90'▲S. Ivan←▼I. Coadă

Unirea Slobozia substitutes

TraşcuGherghiceanuGreuIvan