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Universitatea Cluj vs Unirea Constanța — Liga II 2018

Universitatea Cluj
Universitatea Cluj
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Unirea Constanța
Unirea Constanța
8/12/2021Liga IILiga II · Round 3Cluj Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Universitatea Cluj71%
×Draw17%
Unirea Constanța12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitatea Cluj
2.54
Unirea Constanța
0.96

Universitatea Cluj creates 165% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 25 away

creates per match

Universitatea Cluj
1.83
Unirea Constanța
1.08

allows per match

Universitatea Cluj
0.83
Unirea Constanța
3.24

finishing

Universitatea Cluj+0.00on par
Unirea Constanța+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Cluj ↓

Unirea Constanța →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Universitatea Cluj or draw
88%
Universitatea Cluj or Unirea Constanța
83%
Draw or Unirea Constanța
29%

Winning margin

Universitatea Cluj wins by 2+
49%
Unirea Constanța wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Universitatea Cluj 1+ goals
92%
Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals
72%
Universitatea Cluj 3+ goals
46%
Unirea Constanța 1+ goals
62%
Unirea Constanța 2+ goals
25%
Unirea Constanța 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Cluj (draw refunded)
85%
Unirea Constanța (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Cluj at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 58 matches

Unirea Constanța away — creates 1.08, concedes 3.24 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Cluj attack 1.83 + Unirea Constanța defence 3.24 → ÷2 → 2.54

Unirea Constanța attack 1.08 + Universitatea Cluj defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Universitatea Cluj scores more
71%
level
17%
Unirea Constanța scores more
12%

Universitatea Cluj at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Universitatea Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Universitatea Cluj 1–0 Unirea Constanța

Universitatea Cluj beat Unirea Constanța 1-0 in Liga II on August 12, 2021.

The match was played at Cluj Arena in Cluj-Napoca.