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Universitatea Cluj vs Sportul Snagov — Liga II 2018

Universitatea Cluj
Universitatea Cluj
CANC
08:00
Sportul Snagov
Sportul Snagov
4/11/2020Liga IILiga II · Round 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Universitatea Cluj57%
×Draw23%
Sportul Snagov20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitatea Cluj
1.80
Sportul Snagov
0.97

Universitatea Cluj creates 86% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 30 away

creates per match

Universitatea Cluj
1.83
Sportul Snagov
1.10

allows per match

Universitatea Cluj
0.83
Sportul Snagov
1.77

finishing

Universitatea Cluj+0.00on par
Sportul Snagov+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Cluj ↓

Sportul Snagov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Universitatea Cluj or draw
80%
Universitatea Cluj or Sportul Snagov
77%
Draw or Sportul Snagov
43%

Winning margin

Universitatea Cluj wins by 2+
32%
Sportul Snagov wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Universitatea Cluj 1+ goals
83%
Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals
54%
Universitatea Cluj 3+ goals
27%
Sportul Snagov 1+ goals
62%
Sportul Snagov 2+ goals
25%
Sportul Snagov 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Cluj (draw refunded)
74%
Sportul Snagov (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Cluj at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 58 matches

Sportul Snagov away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Cluj attack 1.83 + Sportul Snagov defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.80

Sportul Snagov attack 1.10 + Universitatea Cluj defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Universitatea Cluj scores more
57%
level
23%
Sportul Snagov scores more
20%

Universitatea Cluj at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Universitatea Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Universitatea Cluj host Sportul Snagov

April 11, 2020: Universitatea Cluj take on Sportul Snagov in Liga II. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.