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Universitatea Cluj vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe — Liga I 2026

Universitatea Cluj
Universitatea Cluj
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
8/19/2024Liga ILiga I · Round 6Cluj Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Universitatea Cluj42%
×Draw27%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitatea Cluj
1.33
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.09

Universitatea Cluj creates 22% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 135 away

creates per match

Universitatea Cluj
1.41
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.18

allows per match

Universitatea Cluj
1.00
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.25

finishing

Universitatea Cluj+0.00on par
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Cluj ↓

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Universitatea Cluj or draw
69%
Universitatea Cluj or Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
73%
Draw or Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
58%

Winning margin

Universitatea Cluj wins by 2+
19%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Universitatea Cluj 1+ goals
74%
Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals
38%
Universitatea Cluj 3+ goals
15%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1+ goals
66%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2+ goals
30%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Cluj (draw refunded)
58%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Cluj at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 80 matches

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.25 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Cluj attack 1.41 + Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.33

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe attack 1.18 + Universitatea Cluj defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Universitatea Cluj scores more
42%
level
27%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe scores more
31%

Universitatea Cluj at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Universitatea Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Universitatea Cluj vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

Universitatea Cluj beat Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 3-0 in Liga I on August 19, 2024.

The match was played at Cluj Arena in Cluj-Napoca.