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Universitatea Cluj vs Ripensia Timisoara — Liga II 2018

Universitatea Cluj
Universitatea Cluj
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Ripensia Timisoara
Ripensia Timisoara
4/26/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 32Cluj Arena (Cluj-Napoca)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Universitatea Cluj54%
×Draw24%
Ripensia Timisoara21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitatea Cluj
1.66
Ripensia Timisoara
0.93

Universitatea Cluj creates 78% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 70 away

creates per match

Universitatea Cluj
1.83
Ripensia Timisoara
1.03

allows per match

Universitatea Cluj
0.83
Ripensia Timisoara
1.49

finishing

Universitatea Cluj+0.00on par
Ripensia Timisoara+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Cluj ↓

Ripensia Timisoara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Universitatea Cluj or draw
79%
Universitatea Cluj or Ripensia Timisoara
76%
Draw or Ripensia Timisoara
46%

Winning margin

Universitatea Cluj wins by 2+
30%
Ripensia Timisoara wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Universitatea Cluj 1+ goals
81%
Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals
49%
Universitatea Cluj 3+ goals
23%
Ripensia Timisoara 1+ goals
61%
Ripensia Timisoara 2+ goals
24%
Ripensia Timisoara 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Cluj (draw refunded)
72%
Ripensia Timisoara (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Cluj at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 58 matches

Ripensia Timisoara away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.49 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Cluj attack 1.83 + Ripensia Timisoara defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.66

Ripensia Timisoara attack 1.03 + Universitatea Cluj defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Universitatea Cluj scores more
54%
level
24%
Ripensia Timisoara scores more
21%

Universitatea Cluj at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Universitatea Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Universitatea Cluj vs Ripensia Timisoara

Ripensia Timisoara beat Universitatea Cluj 3-2 in Liga II on April 26, 2019.

The match was played at Cluj Arena (Cluj-Napoca).