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Ripensia Timisoara vs Universitatea Cluj — Liga II 2018

Ripensia Timisoara
Ripensia Timisoara
CANC
14:00
Universitatea Cluj
Universitatea Cluj
4/8/2020Liga IILiga II · Round 29Stadionul Electrica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Ripensia Timisoara27%
×Draw27%
Universitatea Cluj46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ripensia Timisoara
1.03
Universitatea Cluj
1.42

Universitatea Cluj creates 38% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 58 away

creates per match

Ripensia Timisoara
1.09
Universitatea Cluj
1.59

allows per match

Ripensia Timisoara
1.24
Universitatea Cluj
0.97

finishing

Ripensia Timisoara+0.00on par
Universitatea Cluj+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ripensia Timisoara ↓

Universitatea Cluj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ripensia Timisoara or draw
54%
Ripensia Timisoara or Universitatea Cluj
73%
Draw or Universitatea Cluj
73%

Winning margin

Ripensia Timisoara wins by 2+
10%
Universitatea Cluj wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Ripensia Timisoara 1+ goals
64%
Ripensia Timisoara 2+ goals
28%
Ripensia Timisoara 3+ goals
9%
Universitatea Cluj 1+ goals
76%
Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals
41%
Universitatea Cluj 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Ripensia Timisoara (draw refunded)
37%
Universitatea Cluj (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ripensia Timisoara at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.24 · 67 matches

Universitatea Cluj away — creates 1.59, concedes 0.97 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ripensia Timisoara attack 1.09 + Universitatea Cluj defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.03

Universitatea Cluj attack 1.59 + Ripensia Timisoara defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ripensia Timisoara scores more
27%
level
27%
Universitatea Cluj scores more
46%

Universitatea Cluj at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Universitatea Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ripensia Timisoara host Universitatea Cluj

April 8, 2020: Ripensia Timisoara take on Universitatea Cluj in Liga II. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Ripensia Timisoara host Universitatea Cluj at Stadionul Electrica.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.