Universitatea Cluj 0–2 Politehnica Iasi

Universitatea Cluj

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Politehnica Iasi

9/4/2023

Liga I · Round 8Cluj Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Universitatea Cluj51%

×Draw26%

Politehnica Iasi23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universitatea ClujExpected goals in this matchPolitehnica Iasi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.94

Universitatea Cluj

1.54

Politehnica Iasi

0.94

Universitatea Cluj creates 64% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 100 away

1.41

creates per match

0.87

1.00

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Universitatea Cluj

1.41

Politehnica Iasi

0.87

allows per match

Universitatea Cluj

1.00

Politehnica Iasi

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universitatea Cluj+0.00on par

Politehnica Iasi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Cluj ↓

Politehnica Iasi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Universitatea Cluj or draw

77%

Universitatea Cluj or Politehnica Iasi

74%

Draw or Politehnica Iasi

49%

Winning margin

Universitatea Cluj wins by 2+

26%

Politehnica Iasi wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Universitatea Cluj 1+ goals

79%

Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals

45%

Universitatea Cluj 3+ goals

20%

Politehnica Iasi 1+ goals

61%

Politehnica Iasi 2+ goals

24%

Politehnica Iasi 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Cluj (draw refunded)

69%

Politehnica Iasi (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Cluj at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 80 matches

Politehnica Iasi away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.67 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Cluj attack 1.41 + Politehnica Iasi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.54

Politehnica Iasi attack 0.87 + Universitatea Cluj defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Universitatea Cluj scores more

51%

level

26%

Politehnica Iasi scores more

23%

Universitatea Cluj at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Universitatea Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff