Universitatea Cluj 1–1 Petrolul Ploiesti

Universitatea Cluj

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Petrolul Ploiesti

8/9/2025

Liga I · Round 5Cluj Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Universitatea Cluj48%

×Draw27%

Petrolul Ploiesti25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universitatea ClujExpected goals in this matchPetrolul Ploiesti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.95

Universitatea Cluj

1.43

Petrolul Ploiesti

0.95

Universitatea Cluj creates 51% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.17

creates per match

0.80

1.09

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Universitatea Cluj

1.17

Petrolul Ploiesti

0.80

allows per match

Universitatea Cluj

1.09

Petrolul Ploiesti

1.69

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

Universitatea Cluj-0.31scores less

Petrolul Ploiesti+0.20scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Cluj ↓

Petrolul Ploiesti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Universitatea Cluj or draw

75%

Universitatea Cluj or Petrolul Ploiesti

73%

Draw or Petrolul Ploiesti

52%

Winning margin

Universitatea Cluj wins by 2+

24%

Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Universitatea Cluj 1+ goals

76%

Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals

42%

Universitatea Cluj 3+ goals

17%

Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals

61%

Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals

25%

Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Cluj (draw refunded)

66%

Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Cluj at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.09 · 7 matches

Petrolul Ploiesti away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.69 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Cluj attack 1.17 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.43

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 0.80 + Universitatea Cluj defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Universitatea Cluj scores more

48%

level

27%

Petrolul Ploiesti scores more

25%

Universitatea Cluj at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Universitatea Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff