Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Universitatea Cluj vs Pandurii TG JIU — Liga II 2018

Universitatea Cluj
Universitatea Cluj
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Pandurii TG JIU
Pandurii TG JIU
4/14/2021Liga IILiga II · Relegation Round - 3Cluj Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Universitatea Cluj65%
×Draw20%
Pandurii TG JIU15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitatea Cluj
2.08
Pandurii TG JIU
0.89

Universitatea Cluj creates 134% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 44 away

creates per match

Universitatea Cluj
1.83
Pandurii TG JIU
0.95

allows per match

Universitatea Cluj
0.83
Pandurii TG JIU
2.34

finishing

Universitatea Cluj+0.00on par
Pandurii TG JIU+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Cluj ↓

Pandurii TG JIU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Universitatea Cluj or draw
85%
Universitatea Cluj or Pandurii TG JIU
80%
Draw or Pandurii TG JIU
35%

Winning margin

Universitatea Cluj wins by 2+
40%
Pandurii TG JIU wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Universitatea Cluj 1+ goals
87%
Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals
61%
Universitatea Cluj 3+ goals
34%
Pandurii TG JIU 1+ goals
59%
Pandurii TG JIU 2+ goals
22%
Pandurii TG JIU 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Cluj (draw refunded)
81%
Pandurii TG JIU (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Cluj at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 58 matches

Pandurii TG JIU away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.34 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Cluj attack 1.83 + Pandurii TG JIU defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.08

Pandurii TG JIU attack 0.95 + Universitatea Cluj defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Universitatea Cluj scores more
65%
level
20%
Pandurii TG JIU scores more
15%

Universitatea Cluj at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Universitatea Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Universitatea Cluj 1–1 Pandurii TG JIU

Universitatea Cluj and Pandurii TG JIU drew 1-1 in Liga II on April 14, 2021.

The match was played at Cluj Arena in Cluj-Napoca.