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Universitatea Cluj vs Juventus Bucuresti — Liga II 2018

Universitatea Cluj
Universitatea Cluj
CANC
09:00
Juventus Bucuresti
Juventus Bucuresti
11/2/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 15Cluj Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Universitatea Cluj54%
×Draw24%
Juventus Bucuresti22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitatea Cluj
1.68
Juventus Bucuresti
0.97

Universitatea Cluj creates 73% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 19 away

creates per match

Universitatea Cluj
1.83
Juventus Bucuresti
1.11

allows per match

Universitatea Cluj
0.83
Juventus Bucuresti
1.53

finishing

Universitatea Cluj+0.00on par
Juventus Bucuresti+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Cluj ↓

Juventus Bucuresti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Universitatea Cluj or draw
78%
Universitatea Cluj or Juventus Bucuresti
76%
Draw or Juventus Bucuresti
46%

Winning margin

Universitatea Cluj wins by 2+
29%
Juventus Bucuresti wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Universitatea Cluj 1+ goals
81%
Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals
50%
Universitatea Cluj 3+ goals
24%
Juventus Bucuresti 1+ goals
62%
Juventus Bucuresti 2+ goals
25%
Juventus Bucuresti 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Cluj (draw refunded)
71%
Juventus Bucuresti (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Cluj at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 58 matches

Juventus Bucuresti away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Cluj attack 1.83 + Juventus Bucuresti defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.68

Juventus Bucuresti attack 1.11 + Universitatea Cluj defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Universitatea Cluj scores more
54%
level
24%
Juventus Bucuresti scores more
22%

Universitatea Cluj at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Universitatea Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Universitatea Cluj host Juventus Bucuresti

November 2, 2019: Universitatea Cluj take on Juventus Bucuresti in Liga II. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Universitatea Cluj host Juventus Bucuresti at Cluj Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.