Universitatea Cluj 2–1 FC Voluntari: Result & Stats

Universitatea Cluj

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

FC Voluntari

1/20/2023

Liga I · Round 22Cluj Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Universitatea Cluj48%

×Draw26%

FC Voluntari26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universitatea ClujExpected goals in this matchFC Voluntari

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.00

Universitatea Cluj

1.48

FC Voluntari

1.00

Universitatea Cluj creates 48% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 119 away

1.41

creates per match

1.01

1.00

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Universitatea Cluj

1.41

FC Voluntari

1.01

allows per match

Universitatea Cluj

1.00

FC Voluntari

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universitatea Cluj+0.00on par

FC Voluntari+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Cluj ↓

FC Voluntari →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Universitatea Cluj or draw

74%

Universitatea Cluj or FC Voluntari

74%

Draw or FC Voluntari

52%

Winning margin

Universitatea Cluj wins by 2+

24%

FC Voluntari wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Universitatea Cluj 1+ goals

77%

Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals

43%

Universitatea Cluj 3+ goals

19%

FC Voluntari 1+ goals

63%

FC Voluntari 2+ goals

26%

FC Voluntari 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Cluj (draw refunded)

65%

FC Voluntari (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Cluj at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 80 matches

FC Voluntari away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.54 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Cluj attack 1.41 + FC Voluntari defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.48

FC Voluntari attack 1.01 + Universitatea Cluj defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Universitatea Cluj scores more

48%

level

26%

FC Voluntari scores more

26%

Universitatea Cluj at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Universitatea Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff