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Universitatea Cluj vs FC Botosani — Liga I 2026

Universitatea Cluj
Universitatea Cluj
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FC Botosani
FC Botosani
3/1/2025Liga ILiga I · Round 29Cluj Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Universitatea Cluj53%
×Draw24%
FC Botosani24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitatea Cluj
1.71
FC Botosani
1.06

Universitatea Cluj creates 61% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Universitatea Cluj
1.17
FC Botosani
1.03

allows per match

Universitatea Cluj
1.09
FC Botosani
2.24

finishing

Universitatea Cluj-0.31scores less
FC Botosani-0.17scores less

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Cluj ↓

FC Botosani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Universitatea Cluj or draw
76%
Universitatea Cluj or FC Botosani
76%
Draw or FC Botosani
47%

Winning margin

Universitatea Cluj wins by 2+
29%
FC Botosani wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Universitatea Cluj 1+ goals
82%
Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals
51%
Universitatea Cluj 3+ goals
24%
FC Botosani 1+ goals
65%
FC Botosani 2+ goals
29%
FC Botosani 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Cluj (draw refunded)
69%
FC Botosani (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Cluj at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.09 · 7 matches

FC Botosani away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.24 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Cluj attack 1.17 + FC Botosani defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.71

FC Botosani attack 1.03 + Universitatea Cluj defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Universitatea Cluj scores more
53%
level
24%
FC Botosani scores more
24%

Universitatea Cluj at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Universitatea Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Universitatea Cluj vs FC Botosani

FC Botosani beat Universitatea Cluj 1-0 in Liga I on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at Cluj Arena in Cluj-Napoca.