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Universitatea Cluj vs FC Astra Giurgiu — Liga II 2018

Universitatea Cluj
Universitatea Cluj
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
FC Astra Giurgiu
FC Astra Giurgiu
11/30/2021Liga IILiga II · Round 15Cluj Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Universitatea Cluj64%
×Draw20%
FC Astra Giurgiu15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitatea Cluj
2.04
FC Astra Giurgiu
0.88

Universitatea Cluj creates 132% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 12 away

creates per match

Universitatea Cluj
1.83
FC Astra Giurgiu
0.92

allows per match

Universitatea Cluj
0.83
FC Astra Giurgiu
2.25

finishing

Universitatea Cluj+0.00on par
FC Astra Giurgiu+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Cluj ↓

FC Astra Giurgiu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Universitatea Cluj or draw
85%
Universitatea Cluj or FC Astra Giurgiu
80%
Draw or FC Astra Giurgiu
36%

Winning margin

Universitatea Cluj wins by 2+
40%
FC Astra Giurgiu wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Universitatea Cluj 1+ goals
87%
Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals
60%
Universitatea Cluj 3+ goals
33%
FC Astra Giurgiu 1+ goals
59%
FC Astra Giurgiu 2+ goals
22%
FC Astra Giurgiu 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Cluj (draw refunded)
81%
FC Astra Giurgiu (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Cluj at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 58 matches

FC Astra Giurgiu away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Cluj attack 1.83 + FC Astra Giurgiu defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.04

FC Astra Giurgiu attack 0.92 + Universitatea Cluj defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Universitatea Cluj scores more
64%
level
20%
FC Astra Giurgiu scores more
15%

Universitatea Cluj at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Universitatea Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Universitatea Cluj 1–2 FC Astra Giurgiu

FC Astra Giurgiu beat Universitatea Cluj 2-1 in Liga II on November 30, 2021.

The match was played at Cluj Arena in Cluj-Napoca.